Most of the population are not quite as excited by politics as I am, but this election result is really exciting. Getting rid of Scott was on most of our agendas, but this result goes much further than just doing that. This could be the election that drives a fundamental change in how Australian politics have played out, breaks the deadlock of an adversarial two party system and leads to positive change for people and the planet. It’s an opportunity to show that progressive policies within a mainstream political framework can do so much more than the angry posturing of the far right and blithely waiting for the free market to miraculously sort things out. Sure, I’d love far more radical action than we are likely to see, but pragmatically, this a great outcome.
For years now, the ALP has been drifting right. Most politics have been either drifting or leaping right. The LNP and ALP scrapped with each other over the moderately conservative vote and both pandered to the far right in terms of refugees, welfare, taxation and a carbon price. This left a growing segment of the community frustrated, and now the major parties have had a rude awakening that many Australians want environmentally and socially progressive policy. The massive (and they are really massive) swings to teal candidates perhaps suggests where the green vote would be at if not for a multigenerational campaign to paint the Greens as a fringe, fanatical, single issue party. Even in the face of 40 years of that messaging, more people have voted Green in this election than ever before, enough that in electorates without a teal candidate, the people have elected a green one. Thanks Queensland. Despite your poor performance at the last election, I think this means we can move the line of secession up and keep SEQ.
The liberal party has had a massive chunk ripped out of it. It was glorious between about 9 and 10 last night to watch conservative fucker after conservative fucker be booted out for a progressive candidate. But the National Party didn’t suffer the same losses. In fact, they lost no one. The first hour was depressing as massive NP first preferences decided rural electorates almost as soon as counting started. Here in the Mallee, we not only returned the NP with a greater majority, we got more votes for the ghost one nation candidate and UAP than for the greens. The backwaters of our country really are rural Vic, Nsw and Qld. Sorry everyone, my electorate voted in a queerphobic, vaccine objecting, climate sceptic LNP tool. Maybe you should kick us out.
This result increases the power of the National Party, the more conservative branch of the party, in the coalition. Many of the remaining liberal party members are from the party right as well, so it’s possible this gutting of the party will see it lurch further right again. It may develop into a mainstream ultra conservative party like the Republicans. Or it may break the coalition – the parties renegotiate their coalition after each election, and maybe the liberals won’t like sharing more power to their hitherto weaker conservative partner. Or maybe they will take on board the message that the community wants progressive policies and the major party battleground can move back towards the centre. Whatever way it goes, there’s going to be change, and it would be poking themselves in the eye to take the more conservative path. I don't mind watching them consign themselves to history though.
It looks reasonably likely that labor will get enough seats to form majority govt (sigh, I'd really love the extra kick that having to negotiate with Green and Teals would give the govt), but it will still have had an incredibly low first preference vote, and that vote hasn’t bled to the right. The UAP and One nation, despite the embarrassing support they received out here, are nevertheless only about 4% each. Greens, teals and centrist independents have between them got a first preference vote not far behind the major parties, and support for them has tended to flow on to Labor. It’s an incredibly clear message that Australia doesn’t want to be a conservative policy battleground and we are ready to tear apart the two party political domination. Labor’s policies are now the starting point for a negotiation further left. They will need to follow through with their promises on a federal ICAC, aged care reform and strengthen their climate action. Their support of the Uluru statement last night was great. Hopefully they can be pressured on housing, health, refugees and welfare. Even with a majority govt, they know they risk losing the electorate next time if they don’t embrace more progressive policy. Scott thought he needed to get votes of the far right. Hopefully Anthony remembers that the vote of the centre left is far stronger.
The senate remains interesting though. Right now, with only a few seats undecided, neither an alliance of labor and greens nor of LNP and the far right have a majority. We’d need another 2 senators from labor or green to reach quota to hold a majority, but Pauline could get in again, and it’s still possible that Victoria (probably courtesy of the Mallee and Gippsland) will sentence us to a UAP senator. Passing legislation may all come down to whom the Jackie Lambie network supports!
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